EUR/JPY fundamental analysis for April 4, 2017

Source: Forex Analysis

EUR/JPY had been in a bearish non-volatile trend since the break below 121.10. Today JPY had negative economic event report of Monetary Base at 20.3 which was expected to be at 23.2% and 10y Bond Auction report at 0.06/4.0 which previously was at 0.08/3.7. Overall the JPY economic reports today was not so impressive but EUR is having Positive Spanish Unemployment Change at -48.6 which was expected at -41.2 and Retail Sales at 0.7% which was expected at 0.5%, that could not push against JPY today. Currently ECB President Draghi is speaking about the short-term interest rates and upcoming changes in the monetary policy of the economy beside the BREXIT effect. A good amount of volatility is expected throughout the speech on every EUR based pairs today. A daily close will disclose further hints on upcoming moves in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has broken below the support of 118.20. If we see a daily close below 118.20, we will be looking for any retest towards 118.20 as resistance and any rejection on the intraday chart tomorrow will signal much lower moves in the future towards 116.25 support. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 118.20 with a daily close, it will negate the bearish bias and we will bullish with a target towards 20 EMA dynamic level resistance.

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