Brief: China Industrial Production Falls as Trade War Bites

Source: Forex News

Today, focus will remain on crude
oil following the attacks in the Strait of Hormuz that happened yesterday. In a
press conference, without providing any evidence, Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of
State blamed Iran for the attacks. In a rejoinder, Iran blamed the United
States for the attack. The foreign minister said that the US was seeking a
reason to attack the country in the same way it did when it attacked Iraq. In
the previous tanker attacks, Iran-supported Houthi rebels claimed
responsibility for the attack. Today, investors will wait for a response from
other countries in the Middle East.

Today, the Russian central bank
will release its interest rates decision. The bank is expected to become the
latest major central bank to cut rates. It will likely slash rates by 25 basis
points from 7.75% to a low of 7.50%. The decision will come a week after the
Australian central bank slashed rates by 25 basis points. Yesterday, the Swiss
National Bank (SNB) left rates unchanged at -0.75%. The Fed has also been under
pressure to lower interest rates as the trade war continues. The inflation data
released this week coupled with the employment numbers released a week ago
continue to make the case for a rate cut.

The United States will release
the retail sales data for the month of May. The data is expected to show that
the headline retail sales rose by a MoM rate of 0.7%, which will be above the
previous decline of -0.7%. The core retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%,
which is higher than the previous increase of 0.1%. the retail control is
expected to have risen by 0.4%, which is lower than the previous 1.1%. In
addition to the retail sales, investors will receive the manufacturing
production data for the month of May. This data will come from the Fed.
Investors expect the manufacturing production to rise by 0.1% while the
industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2%. The business inventories
data is expected to rise by 0.4%.

Investors will also receive the
oil rigs from Baker Hughes. The data is expected to show that the oil rig count
increased to 792 from last week’s 789. The total rig count, which includes
those of natural gas are expected to increase to 978. These numbers will come
at a time when the US is seeing increased oil production as the driving season
nears. This week, data from Energy Information Administration showed that
inventories rose by more than 2 million barrels.

Today, investors received mixed
economic data from China. The numbers showed that the industrial production
rose by 5.0% in May, which was lower than the expected 5.4%. the fixed asset
investment rose by 5.6%, lower than the expected 6.1%. on a positive note, the
retail sales increased by 8.6%, which was higher than the expected 8.0%. The
unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0%.

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