Week Ahead: Focus to be on Geopolitics and Inflation Data

Source: Forex News

Last week, global stocks rose as the tensions on trade issues eased. Most gains came from the United States, where stocks rose for 5 consecutive days. One of the biggest winners was crude oil, which rose because of shrinking stocks and the crisis in the Middle East. This week, economic data and politics will continue to dominate.

Yesterday, Donald Trump tweeted that he was in direct talks with Chinese president, Xi Jimping on ZTE. ZTE is a large Chinese company that manufacturers telecommunication equipment. Two weeks ago, the commerce department announced that it would ban the company from the United States for violating sanctions on Iran. This was a big blow to a company that gets a good part of its revenues from the country. As a result, the company announced that the news was likely to affect its long-term growth as a going concern. To many traders, this was a positive move in the ongoing trade negotiations.

This week, we will receive consumer price data from major countries. This will be just a week after the US released its data that disappointed by missing what analysts were expecting. Tomorrow, we will receive the CPI numbers from France, the second biggest economy in the EU. Traders expect the CPI to remain unchanged at 0.1%. We will also have the hearings on inflation from the UK. On Wednesday, we will get the same numbers from Germany and the EU. The EU numbers are expected to show that the CPI remained unchanged in April at an annual rate of 1.2%. On Friday, we will receive the CPI numbers from Japan and Canada.

Another major economic data scheduled for the week is EK employment numbers, which will be released on Tuesday. The numbers are expected to show that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The claimant count change is expected to show a growth – or weakness – from 11.6K to 13.3K. This number shows the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A surprise in the employment numbers could lead to significant movements on the cable.

We will also receive the GDP numbers for several countries during the week. On Tuesday, we will receive the economic growth numbers from Germany. The data will show that the economy grew by 0.4%, which is lower than the previously released 0.6%. On an annual basis, the economy will grow by 1.7%, which is lower than last month’s 2.3%. On the same day, we will receive the GDP numbers from the EU which are expected to remain unchanged. On Wednesday, we will receive the GDP numbers from Japan, which are expected to be lower than last month’s.

Traders will also focus on crude oil, which had a good week following the tensions in the Middle East. They will wait for the data from EIA which will show the stock piles. Growing stock piles is likely to be negative for the crude oil. Nonetheless, traders will continue focusing on the ongoing issues in the Middle East.

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